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Amon-Ra St. Brown

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions
Player Prop Week 14

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-139/+102).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -148 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ +102.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 134.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Opposing offenses have averaged 38.8 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.

THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to notch 11.6 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 99th percentile among wideouts.

Amon-Ra St. Brown has been much more involved in his team's pass game this season (33.1% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (22.1%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Detroit Lions offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.

The Minnesota Vikings cornerbacks project as the 7th-best collection of CBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

The Detroit Lions O-line has allowed their quarterback a mere 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

The Detroit Lions have incorporated play action on a measly 22.0% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (5th-least in the league), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

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