Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Amon-Ra St. Brown

NFL · Player Props

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers · Week 7, 2026

Updated Oct 25, 2026 8:37 PM EST

Analysis

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 81.5 (-104/-104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 78.5 @ -122 before it was bet up to 81.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Lions to pass on 61.1% of their downs: the 7th-highest frequency among all teams this week.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the model to see 137.4 plays on offense called: the most out of all the games this week.
The 6th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a monstrous 61.8 per game on average).
The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.
The predictive model expects Amon-Ra St. Brown to accumulate 12.0 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 99th percentile when it comes to WRs.

Favors Under

The Lions are a 4-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
Amon-Ra St. Brown's 68.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 77.1.
Amon-Ra St. Brown's possession skills have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 72.2% to 68.5%.
Amon-Ra St. Brown's pass-game effectiveness has declined this season, accumulating a measly 7.56 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 9.14 rate last season.
This year, the formidable Green Bay Packers defense has allowed the 3rd-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing wide receivers: a feeble 7.1 yards.

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