Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Arizona Cardinals vs Detroit Lions · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 8:27 PM EST

Analysis

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 80.5 (-113/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 49.5 @ -531 before it was bet up to 80.5 @ -113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects this game to have the highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 134.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The 3rd-most plays in football have been called by the Lions this year (a colossal 62.5 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
In this game, Amon-Ra St. Brown is anticipated by the model to place in the 99th percentile among WRs with 11.0 targets.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has compiled far more air yards this year (94.0 per game) than he did last year (85.0 per game).

Favors Under

A rushing game script is indicated by the Lions being a 5.5-point favorite this week.
Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to pass too much against the Cardinals, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 28.0 per game) this year.
Amon-Ra St. Brown's 66.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 77.1.
Amon-Ra St. Brown's receiving effectiveness has diminished this year, totaling just 7.84 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 9.14 figure last year.
The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has conceded the 8th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (61.9%) to wide receivers since the start of last season (61.9%).