Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs New Orleans Saints · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 12:52 PM EST

Analysis

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 79.5 (+109/-131).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 89.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 79.5 @ -131.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect this game to see the most plays run on the slate this week at 134.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.
Our trusted projections expect Amon-Ra St. Brown to notch 10.5 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 98th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been heavily involved in his team's pass game, posting a Target Share of 32.9% last year, which places him in the 99th percentile among WRs.
When talking about air yards, Amon-Ra St. Brown ranks in the towering 89th percentile among WRs last year, averaging an astounding 85.0 per game.

Favors Under

The Lions are a giant 7-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to test the pass defense of the New Orleans Saints, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 28.3 per game) last year.
The Detroit O-line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL last year in pass protection, which has a negative influence on all pass game statistics across the board.
Amon-Ra St. Brown profiles as one of the worst WRs in the league at picking up extra yardage, averaging a lowly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) last year while ranking in the 1st percentile.
The Saints defense has surrendered the 4th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 113.0) to wide receivers last year.