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Amon-Ra St. Brown

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Detroit Lions vs Seattle Seahawks

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 69.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 89.5 @ -200 before it was bet down to 69.5 @ +105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Detroit Lions to call the most plays on offense on the slate this week with 68.1 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.

The 2nd-highest number of plays in the league have been run by the Lions since the start of last season (a monstrous 61.2 per game on average).

The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.

Our trusted projections expect Amon-Ra St. Brown to garner 10.4 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 100th percentile among wideouts.

Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a key part of his team's offense, garnering a Target Share of 32.0% this year, which ranks him in the 98th percentile among wideouts.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's spread implies a rushing game script for the Lions, who are favored by 6 points.

The model projects the Detroit Lions as the 10th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 56.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Amon-Ra St. Brown's 63.6% Adjusted Catch Rate this year represents a noteable regression in his receiving talent over last year's 75.1% figure.

Amon-Ra St. Brown's 6.8 adjusted yards per target this season marks a meaningful reduction in his receiving prowess over last season's 9.9 figure.

Amon-Ra St. Brown's 2.19 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season conveys a remarkable drop-off in his efficiency in picking up extra yardage over last season's 5.6% mark.

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