Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Amon-Ra St. Brown

NFL · Player Props

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 68.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 68.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 68.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 7th-quickest pace in the league (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 26.63 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to earn 8.3 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 85th percentile among wideouts.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been among the leading wide receivers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 64.0 yards per game while ranking in the 92nd percentile.
Amon-Ra St. Brown's ability to generate extra yardage has gotten better this season, compiling 10.78 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a mere 3.24 rate last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 56.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to be much less involved in his team's pass game this week (25.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (30.6% in games he has played).
The Detroit Lions offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Amon-Ra St. Brown's possession skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 78.6% to 69.6%.

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