My Account Log Out

reorder

Amon-Ra St. Brown

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 8

Detroit Lions vs Miami Dolphins

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+162/-229).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -183 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -229.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Lions are a 4-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions offense as the 9th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.70 seconds per snap.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a big part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 26.1% this year, which ranks in the 89th percentile among WRs.

Amon-Ra St. Brown's 47.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the NFL: 76th percentile for WRs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Amon-Ra St. Brown has posted far fewer air yards this year (41.0 per game) than he did last year (50.0 per game).

The Detroit Lions offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.

Amon-Ra St. Brown's receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 78.6% to 71.9%.

The Detroit Lions offensive line has given their QB a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.

The Miami Dolphins defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-quickest in the league since the start of last season.

More Amon-Ra St. Brown Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™