Ameer Abdullah Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Ameer Abdullah

NFL · Player Props

Ameer Abdullah

RB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Touchdowns

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 3:42 PM EST

Analysis

Ameer Abdullah Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1464/-2041).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -2041.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Eagles defense this year: 8th-most in the league.
Out of all running backs this year, Ameer Abdullah grades out in the measly 1st percentile for red zone carries, making up 0.0% of the volume in his offense's rushing attack near the goal line.
As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in defending against the run, Philadelphia's unit has been phenomenal this year, projecting as the best in football.

Favors Under

With a 6-point advantage, the Jaguars are favored this week, suggesting more of a reliance on running than their standard approach.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Jaguars to pass on 54.3% of their opportunities: the 8th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see just 125.8 plays on offense run: the 4th-fewest among all games this week.
The Jaguars have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 51.2 plays per game.
As it relates to protecting the passer (and the significance it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Jacksonville Jaguars profiles as the 6th-worst in the league this year.

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