Ameer Abdullah Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Ameer Abdullah

NFL · Player Props

Ameer Abdullah

RB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Touchdowns

Cincinnati Bengals vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 4:32 PM EST

Analysis

Ameer Abdullah Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1011/-1329).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Jaguars to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 59.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and lower run volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Bengals pass defense has yielded the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (85.9%) to RBs since the start of last season (85.9%).
The Cincinnati Bengals defense has surrendered the 3rd-most receiving touchdowns in the league to running backs: 0.35 per game since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Jaguars to call the 3rd-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 61.3 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The projections expect Ameer Abdullah to be a much smaller piece of his offense's air attack near the end zone in this week's game (1.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (7.7% in games he has played).
The receiving TD field reads "0" on Ameer Abdullah's box scores since the start of last season.
The Cincinnati Bengals safeties rank as the 32nd-worst safety corps in football since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.

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