Alvin Kamara Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Touchdowns

New Orleans Saints vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 26, 2026 12:43 PM EST

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+208/-250).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +529 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +208.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints have been the 5th-most pass-heavy team in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) this year with a 63.6% red zone pass rate.
The model projects this game to see the most plays run out of all the games this week at 132.5 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have called the 3rd-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a staggering 60.4 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Alvin Kamara has been heavily involved in his team's offense near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 13.6% since the start of last season, which places him in the 92nd percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

With a 3-point advantage, the Saints are favored this week, implying more of a focus on rushing than their usual game plan.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.1 pass attempts per game against the Las Vegas Raiders defense since the start of last season: 4th-fewest in the NFL.
With a terrible ratio of only 0.00 per game through the air (1st percentile), Alvin Kamara stands among the weakest receiving TD-scorers in football when it comes to running backs since the start of last season.
Since the start of last season, the fierce Raiders defense has conceded a mere 0.05 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing running backs: the 4th-best rate in the NFL.
Since the start of last season, the porous Raiders run defense has conceded a monstrous 1.26 rushing TDs per game to opposing squads: the 3rd-highest rate in football.