Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Rushing Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 8:27 PM EST

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-136/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 49.5 @ -564 before it was bet down to 29.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast this game to see the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 129.9 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The 3rd-lowest number of plays in football have been called by the New Orleans Saints this year (only 50.8 per game on average).

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the New Orleans Saints to run on 38.4% of their plays: the 4th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Alvin Kamara has been a much smaller piece of his offense's ground game this season (32.9% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (49.0%).
With a dreadful rate of 2.74 adjusted yards per carry (23rd percentile) this year, Alvin Kamara has been as one of the bottom pure runners in the NFL at the position.
This year, the daunting Minnesota Vikings run defense has yielded a puny 86.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing offenses: the 6th-best in football.