Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Rushing Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 5, 2026 8:17 PM EST

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-104/-104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 40.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 33.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 136.0 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The Saints have called the 3rd-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a massive 60.6 plays per game.

Favors Under

The model projects the New Orleans Saints as the least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 40.4% run rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
After taking on 49.0% of his offense's carries last year, Alvin Kamara has been called on less the ground game this year, currently accounting for only 32.7%.
With a lousy tally of 3.07 adjusted yards per carry (2nd percentile) since the start of last season, Alvin Kamara ranks among the worst pure runners in football at the position.
Alvin Kamara rates as one of the weakest RBs in the league at grinding out extra ground yardage, averaging a measly 2.52 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while ranking in the 14th percentile.