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Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints

Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 64.5 (-125/-104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 66.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 64.5 @ -104.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the present time, the 5th-most run-oriented offense in the NFL (43.8% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the New Orleans Saints.

The projections expect Alvin Kamara to notch 17.1 carries this week, on balance, placing him in the 92nd percentile among running backs.

Alvin Kamara has averaged 65.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the highest figures in the league when it comes to running backs (89th percentile).

Alvin Kamara's rushing effectiveness has improved this season, totaling 4.89 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a mere 4.11 figure last season.

The opposing side have rushed for the 9th-most adjusted yards in the league (125 per game) against the Atlanta Falcons defense since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

At a -4-point disadvantage, the Saints are underdogs this week, indicating more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their typical game plan.

The predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints offense to be the 7th-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 29.28 seconds per play.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

While Alvin Kamara has garnered 72.4% of his offense's run game usage in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a much smaller piece of New Orleans's rushing attack this week at 62.2%.

As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in stopping the run, Atlanta's collection of DTs has been one of the most skilled since the start of last season, profiling as the 8th-best in the NFL.

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