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Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 13

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints

 
 
 
Alvin Kamara Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+235/-335).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +280 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +235.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 3rd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive ends profile as the worst DE corps in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Saints are a huge 8.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 6th-least run-heavy offense in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 39.5% red zone run rate.
  • The New Orleans Saints have called the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 55.3 plays per game.
  • THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to be much less involved in his offense's running game near the goal line this week (47.1% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (57.7% in games he has played).
  • Opposing offenses have run for the 8th-least touchdowns in the NFL (0.64 per game) versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year.

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