Alvin Kamara Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Alvin Kamara

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Rushing TD

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 6, 2022 1:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+235/-335).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +280 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +235.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 3rd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive ends profile as the worst DE corps in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.

Favors Under

The Saints are a huge 8.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 6th-least run-heavy offense in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 39.5% red zone run rate.
The New Orleans Saints have called the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 55.3 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to be much less involved in his offense's running game near the goal line this week (47.1% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (57.7% in games he has played).
Opposing offenses have run for the 8th-least touchdowns in the NFL (0.64 per game) versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year.

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