Alvin Kamara Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Alvin Kamara

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Rushing TD

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+162/-220).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to be a much bigger part of his offense's run game near the end zone this week (65.3% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (55.1% in games he has played).
The New Orleans Saints offensive line ranks as the 8th-best in football this year at blocking for the run game.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defensive tackles grade out as the worst unit in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.

Favors Under

Opposing teams have run for the 7th-least touchdowns in football (0.62 per game) vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year.
The New Orleans Saints have gone up against a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box vs. opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on just 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in football). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
The New Orleans Saints have elected to go for it on 4th down a mere 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.

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