Alvin Kamara Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Alvin Kamara

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Receptions

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-170/+140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -170.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Saints offense as the 7th-fastest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 26.93 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The projections expect Alvin Kamara to accrue 4.2 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 90th percentile when it comes to RBs.
Alvin Kamara has been among the leading pass-catching running backs since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 3.8 receptions per game while checking in at the 96th percentile.
When it comes to safeties in defending receivers, Tampa Bay's collection of safeties has been atrocious since the start of last season, grading out as the 4th-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Saints are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
Our trusted projections expect Alvin Kamara to be a less important option in his team's passing game in this contest (12.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (17.5% in games he has played).
The Saints O-line grades out as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Buccaneers pass defense has surrendered the 10th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (79.6%) vs. RBs since the start of last season (79.6%).

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