Alvin Kamara Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Alvin Kamara

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Receptions

New Orleans Saints vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+127/-171).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -164 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -171.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New Orleans Saints will be rolling with backup quarterback Andy Dalton in this week's contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Saints are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 5th-fastest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, causing opposing offenses to average 27.44 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 5th-most in the league.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 7th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 57.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Alvin Kamara has been among the most unreliable receivers in football among RBs, catching a mere 69.5% of balls thrown his way this year, grading out in the 15th percentile.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has given up the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (63.4%) to running backs this year (63.4%).
The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers rank as the 8th-best unit in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

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