Alvin Kamara Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Receptions

New Orleans Saints vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-147/+118).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -147.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 3rd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to garner 6.8 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 98th percentile among running backs.
Alvin Kamara has been a big part of his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 19.2% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
The New Orleans Saints offensive line ranks as the best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Saints are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.8 pass attempts per game versus the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 7th-least in football.
Alvin Kamara's possession skills have tailed off this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 71.9% to 55.6%.
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
The New Orleans Saints have elected to go for it on 4th down just 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.