Alvin Kamara Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Alvin Kamara

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Receptions

New Orleans Saints vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 12:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-135/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 134.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to accrue 6.1 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 99th percentile among running backs.
Alvin Kamara has been a key part of his team's passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 19.2% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 100th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

The New Orleans Saints have run the 7th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 57.6 plays per game.
The New Orleans Saints have played in the 6th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to result in reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game performance when facing windier conditions in this game.
Alvin Kamara's sure-handedness have declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 71.9% to 56.1%.
The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has yielded the 8th-lowest Completion% in football (76.4%) versus running backs since the start of last season (76.4%).
The Minnesota Vikings safeties grade out as the 7th-best safety corps in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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