Alvin Kamara Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Alvin Kamara

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Receptions

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+128/-174).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -151 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +128.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to notch 6.1 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 97th percentile among running backs.
Alvin Kamara's 30.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in football: 99th percentile for RBs.
Alvin Kamara's receiving performance has improved this season, averaging 4.6 yards per game vs a measly 3.6 last season.
Alvin Kamara's possession skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% increasing from 71.9% to 79.7%.

Favors Under

The Saints are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 5th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have called the 9th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 55.3 plays per game.
The Atlanta Falcons pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season.
The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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