Alvin Kamara Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Alvin Kamara

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 6, 2022 1:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-145/+106).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints are a huge 8.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 3rd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to total 7.0 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 98th percentile among RBs.
Alvin Kamara's 32.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the NFL: 99th percentile for RBs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 56.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have called the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 55.3 plays per game.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has surrendered the 10th-lowest Completion% in the league (77.3%) to RBs this year (77.3%).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties rank as the best collection of safeties in football this year with their pass rush.
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on just 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

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