Alvin Kamara Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Alvin Kamara

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-150/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -145 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints are a big 8.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to earn 6.4 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 97th percentile among running backs.
Alvin Kamara's 32.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the NFL: 99th percentile for RBs.
Alvin Kamara's pass-catching performance improved this year, accumulating 4.6 yards per game compared to just 3.6 last year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 58.4% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 9th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have called the 10th-least plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 56.5 plays per game.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has yielded the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (68.4%) versus RBs this year (68.4%).
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers profile as the 3rd-best group of LBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

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