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Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara Receptions
Player Prop Week 12

San Francisco 49ers vs New Orleans Saints

 
 
 
Alvin Kamara Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-150/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -145 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -150.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Saints are a big 8.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
  • The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to earn 6.4 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 97th percentile among running backs.
  • Alvin Kamara's 32.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the NFL: 99th percentile for RBs.
  • Alvin Kamara's pass-catching performance improved this year, accumulating 4.6 yards per game compared to just 3.6 last year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 58.4% pass rate.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 9th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The New Orleans Saints have called the 10th-least plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 56.5 plays per game.
  • The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has yielded the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (68.4%) versus RBs this year (68.4%).
  • The San Francisco 49ers linebackers profile as the 3rd-best group of LBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

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