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Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

New Orleans Saints vs Los Angeles Rams

Alvin Kamara Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+132/-170).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -150 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -170.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The New Orleans Saints will be forced to start backup quarterback Andy Dalton in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to accrue 6.5 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile among RBs.

Alvin Kamara's 32.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the league: 99th percentile for running backs.

Alvin Kamara's receiving skills have been refined this season, accumulating 4.7 yards per game compared to a mere 3.6 last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 7th-least pass-centric offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 57.3% pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 127.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Los Angeles Rams defensive ends project as the 4th-best group of DEs in the NFL this year in regard to rushing the passer.

The Los Angeles Rams pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-fastest in football since the start of last season.

The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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