Alvin Kamara Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Receptions

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM EST

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +105 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 9th-most total plays among all teams this week with 64.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to notch 5.0 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 95th percentile among running backs.
Alvin Kamara has been among the top running backs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 3.6 receptions per game while grading out in the 94th percentile.
The Atlanta Falcons linebackers project as the 5th-worst collection of LBs in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The Saints are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 8th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 55.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have called the 10th-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a measly 60.9 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to be a less important option in his offense's passing game this week (15.3% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (20.3% in games he has played).
Alvin Kamara has been among the most unreliable receivers in the NFL among RBs, catching a mere 71.8% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 12th percentile.