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Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 8

Los Angeles Chargers vs New Orleans Saints

Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 29.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Saints are an enormous 7.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.

Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Saints are forecasted by the projections to run 65.5 offensive plays in this game: the 7th-most among all teams this week.

The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and lower run volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

The model projects Alvin Kamara to accrue 6.6 targets in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 100th percentile among RBs.

With a sizeable 21.5% Target% (100th percentile) this year, Alvin Kamara rates among the pass-game running backs with the most usage in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Saints to be the 5th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 57.0% pass rate.

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Chargers, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 30.3 per game) this year.

In regards to pass-blocking (and the impact it has on all passing game metrics), the offensive line of the Saints ranks as the worst in the league this year.

Alvin Kamara's 31.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year signifies a meaningful decrease in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 37.0 rate.

Alvin Kamara's possession skills have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 86.4% to 78.8%.

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