Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Alvin Kamara

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs New Orleans Saints · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 11:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 24.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 30.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints have been the 8th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (in a neutral context) this year with a 63.4% pass rate.
The projections expect the New Orleans Saints to run the 5th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.5 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
Our trusted projections expect Alvin Kamara to notch 6.3 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 99th percentile among running backs.
Alvin Kamara has been a big part of his team's passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 19.1% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 99th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

The Saints O-line ranks as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
Alvin Kamara's pass-game efficiency has worsened this season, notching just 2.42 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 6.57 figure last season.
Alvin Kamara's ability to grind out extra yardage has tailed off this season, averaging a mere 6.31 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 9.35 rate last season.
Since the start of last season, the stout Patriots defense has conceded a puny 79.7% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing running backs: the 10th-best rate in the NFL.
The New England Patriots linebackers project as the 6th-best collection of LBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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