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Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 9

New Orleans Saints vs Baltimore Ravens

Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 41.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 37.5 @ -145 before it was bet up to 41.5 @ -140.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The New Orleans Saints will be rolling with backup QB Andy Dalton this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Opposing offenses have averaged 39.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.

THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to total 7.8 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 99th percentile among RBs.

Alvin Kamara has notched a whopping 11.0 air yards per game this year: 99th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 57.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Alvin Kamara's pass-game efficiency has worsened this season, accumulating a measly 6.18 yards-per-target vs a 7.11 rate last season.

The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has been quite strong when opposing running backs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 6.70 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-least in the NFL.

The Baltimore Ravens safeties profile as the 6th-best collection of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.

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