Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Alvin Kamara

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-140/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 26.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 28.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 3rd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to garner 6.8 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 98th percentile among running backs.
Alvin Kamara has been a big part of his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 19.2% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
Alvin Kamara has compiled a monstrous 6.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 95th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Favors Under

The Saints are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.8 pass attempts per game versus the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 7th-least in football.
Alvin Kamara's possession skills have tailed off this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 71.9% to 55.6%.
Alvin Kamara's pass-game effectiveness has declined this year, totaling a measly 2.10 yards-per-target compared to a 7.12 figure last year.
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.

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