Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Alvin Kamara

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

Cleveland Browns vs New Orleans Saints · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 24, 2022 9:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 21.5 @ +126 before it was bet up to 21.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to accrue 5.4 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 96th percentile among RBs.
Alvin Kamara has notched a colossal 7.0 air yards per game this year: 98th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Alvin Kamara's 30.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the league leaders: 99th percentile for running backs.
Alvin Kamara has been among the top pass-game running backs this year, averaging a stellar 35.0 yards per game while ranking in the 99th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 8th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 52.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 11th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have run the 10th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 54.9 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 26-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.0 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 6th-least in the NFL.

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