Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (-130/-100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 29.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 34.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to notch 6.1 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 97th percentile among running backs.
Alvin Kamara has accumulated a whopping 7.0 air yards per game this year: 98th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Alvin Kamara's 30.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in football: 99th percentile for RBs.
Alvin Kamara has been among the best pass-catching running backs this year, averaging an impressive 37.0 yards per game while checking in at the 99th percentile.

Favors Under

The Saints are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 5th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have called the 9th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 55.3 plays per game.
The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has excelled when opposing RBs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 5.31 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-least in the league.
The Atlanta Falcons pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season.