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Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 8

New Orleans Saints vs Las Vegas Raiders

Alvin Kamara Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+284/-490).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +359 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +284.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 9th-quickest paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 27.79 seconds per play.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Alvin Kamara has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 24.0% this year, which puts him in the 98th percentile among RBs.

Alvin Kamara has compiled a monstrous 12.0 air yards per game this year: 99th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Alvin Kamara's 32.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 100th percentile for RBs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Alvin Kamara grades out in the 1st percentile among RBs when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a measly 0.00 per game.

The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the league). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.

The New Orleans Saints have gone for it on 4th down a measly 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.

More Alvin Kamara Player Props

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