Alvin Kamara Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Alvin Kamara

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Receiving TD

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 15, 2022 2:40 PM UTC

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+410/-891).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season: most in the league.
Alvin Kamara has accumulated a colossal 4.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 91st percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

The New Orleans Saints have run the 6th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 60.6 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to be a less important option in his team's passing game near the end zone this week (14.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (21.9% in games he has played).
Alvin Kamara has been among the most unreliable receivers in the league among RBs, completing just 71.8% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 8th percentile.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties profile as the 4th-best safety corps in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on just 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

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