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Alvin Kamara
NFL · Player Props
Alvin Kamara
RB · New Orleans Saints
Receiving TD
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 13, 2022 Updated Dec 6, 2022 1:21 AM UTC
NFL Props Alvin Kamara Receiving TD

Alvin Kamara Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+327/-620).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +437 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +327.

Favors Over
  • The Saints are a huge 8.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 3rd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • Alvin Kamara has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 17.8% this year, which ranks in the 98th percentile among RBs.
  • Alvin Kamara has accrued a colossal 8.0 air yards per game this year: 99th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Favors Under
  • The New Orleans Saints have called the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 55.3 plays per game.
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has surrendered the 10th-lowest Completion% in the league (77.3%) to RBs this year (77.3%).
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties rank as the best collection of safeties in football this year with their pass rush.
  • The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on just 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.
  • The New Orleans Saints have risked going for it on 4th down a lowly 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.
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