Alvin Kamara Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Receiving TD

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 6, 2022 1:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+327/-620).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +437 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +327.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints are a huge 8.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 3rd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Alvin Kamara has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 17.8% this year, which ranks in the 98th percentile among RBs.
Alvin Kamara has accrued a colossal 8.0 air yards per game this year: 99th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Favors Under

The New Orleans Saints have called the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 55.3 plays per game.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has surrendered the 10th-lowest Completion% in the league (77.3%) to RBs this year (77.3%).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties rank as the best collection of safeties in football this year with their pass rush.
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on just 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.
The New Orleans Saints have risked going for it on 4th down a lowly 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.