Alvin Kamara Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Receiving TD

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+360/-580).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing QBs have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 6th-most in football.
Alvin Kamara has been an integral part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 21.9% this year, which ranks in the 98th percentile among RBs.
Alvin Kamara has compiled a whopping 10.0 air yards per game this year: 99th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Alvin Kamara's 33.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in football: 100th percentile for RBs.
Alvin Kamara's possession skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% jumping from 71.9% to 77.1%.

Favors Under

The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has given up the 7th-lowest Completion% in football (73.3%) versus running backs this year (73.3%).
The Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers project as the 8th-best LB corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on just 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in football). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
The New Orleans Saints have elected to go for it on 4th down a mere 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.