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Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara Carries
Player Prop Week 5

Kansas City Chiefs vs New Orleans Saints

Alvin Kamara Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the moment, the 4th-most run-focused team in football (44.7% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Saints.

The projections expect Alvin Kamara to accrue 19.4 rush attempts in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 98th percentile when it comes to RBs.

After taking on 53.6% of his offense's rushing play calls last year, Alvin Kamara has had a larger role in the running game this year, now making up 67.9%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Saints are a giant 8-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the New Orleans Saints are forecasted by our trusted projection set to run only 61.8 offensive plays in this contest: the fewest on the slate this week.

The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower rush volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

As it relates to the safeties' role in run defense, Kansas City's group of safeties has been one of the most skilled this year, profiling as the 5th-best in football.

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