Alvin Kamara Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Alvin Kamara

NFL · Player Props

Alvin Kamara

RB · New Orleans Saints

Carries

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Alvin Kamara Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the New Orleans Saints to run the 2nd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.8 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have run the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 63.8 plays per game.
The projections expect Alvin Kamara to earn 14.1 carries this week, on balance, placing him in the 77th percentile when it comes to RBs.
Alvin Kamara has earned 56.5% of his offense's carries this year, putting him in the 89th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Saints as the 7th-least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 39.6% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in stopping the run, Atlanta's DT corps has been fantastic this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

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