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Alvin Kamara Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-163/+118).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -123 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -163.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Saints are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 8th-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 44.9% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 9th-most total plays among all teams this week with 64.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to garner 16.0 carries in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 95th percentile among running backs.The Atlanta Falcons linebackers project as the 4th-worst unit in the league since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The New Orleans Saints have called the 10th-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a measly 60.9 plays per game.This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to be a much smaller piece of his team's rushing attack this week (54.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (65.9% in games he has played).The New Orleans Saints offensive line ranks as the 6th-worst in football since the start of last season at run-game blocking.The New Orleans Saints have been faced with a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
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