Allen Robinson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Allen Robinson

NFL · Player Props

Allen Robinson

WR · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Allen Robinson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+135/-165).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -155 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers rank as the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 64.6% pass rate.
The model projects the Steelers to call the 4th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 10th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a massive 60.4 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Allen Robinson's ball-catching skills have gotten better this year, with his Completion% increasing from 64.8% to 74.6%.

Favors Under

The Steelers are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 6th-fewest in the NFL.
Allen Robinson's 30.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 40.5.
When it comes to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Houston's unit has been outstanding since the start of last season, ranking as the 4th-best in the NFL.

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