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Allen Robinson

Allen Robinson Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 1

Los Angeles Rams vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Allen Robinson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+142/-195).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +156 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +142.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • THE BLITZ projects the Rams to run the 4th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 64.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 31.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in the league.
  • Allen Robinson has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 18.2% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 85th percentile among wideouts.
  • Allen Robinson has notched a colossal 71.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 79th percentile among WRs.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Los Angeles Rams have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should lead to lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing offense efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
  • Allen Robinson has been among the worst possession receivers in football, completing a mere 59.8% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 21st percentile among wideouts
  • The Buffalo Bills pass defense has allowed the 3rd-lowest Completion% in football (60.9%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (60.9%).
  • The Buffalo Bills defense has allowed the least passing TDs in the NFL to WRs: 0.35 per game since the start of last season.
  • The Buffalo Bills safeties rank as the best collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

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