Allen Lazard Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Allen Lazard

NFL · Player Props

Allen Lazard

WR · New York Jets

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 5:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Allen Lazard Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+174/-233).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -217 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -233.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -7-point disadvantage, the Jets are enormous underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting much more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their usual approach.
Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New York Jets to pass on 60.9% of their opportunities: the 7th-highest frequency on the slate this week.
The Dolphins pass defense has surrendered the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (71%) versus wideouts this year (71.0%).

Favors Under

Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the New York Jets are anticipated by the predictive model to call only 63.3 total plays in this game: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The New York Jets have called the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 55.9 plays per game.
Allen Lazard's 27.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 54.3.
When talking about pocket protection (and the ramifications it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the New York Jets ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league this year.
Allen Lazard's receiving talent has diminished this year, accumulating a measly 1.8 adjusted receptions compared to 4.2 last year.

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