Allen Lazard Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Allen Lazard

NFL · Player Props

Allen Lazard

WR · New York Jets

Receptions

New York Jets vs Houston Texans · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 7, 2023 3:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Allen Lazard Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-114/-114).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets may rely on the pass game less in this contest (and call more carries) because they be starting backup QB Zach Wilson.
The New York Jets have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 1.6% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
A passing game script is suggested by the Jets being a -5.5-point underdog this week.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Jets to run the 9th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 64.0 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The 6th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Jets this year (a lowly 55.5 per game on average).
Allen Lazard's 35.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive volume) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 54.3.
When talking about pass protection (and the impact it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Jets ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league this year.
Allen Lazard's 1.8 adjusted receptions per game this season marks a material drop-off in his receiving ability over last season's 4.2 mark.

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