Allen Lazard Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Allen Lazard

WR · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Green Bay Packers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 26, 2022 3:00 AM UTC

Analysis

Allen Lazard Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-110/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +118 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 62.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season: most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Allen Lazard to notch 6.5 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 81st percentile among WRs.
THE BLITZ projects Allen Lazard to be a much bigger part of his offense's passing attack this week (19.5% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (11.7% in games he has played).
The Green Bay Packers have utilized some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their plays since the start of last season (6th-most in football), which usually keeps the defense guessing and improves offensive efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 119.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has surrendered the 4th-lowest Completion% in football (60.9%) to wide receivers since the start of last season (60.9%).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties profile as the 4th-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Green Bay Packers O-line has allowed their QB a mere 2.44 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.