Allen Lazard Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Allen Lazard

NFL · Player Props

Allen Lazard

WR · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Allen Lazard Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (+106/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 28.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 23.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets may throw the ball less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) since they be forced to use backup quarterback Zach Wilson.
The model projects the New York Jets offensive approach to skew 1.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett now calling the plays.
This game's spread implies a passing game script for the Jets, who are -6.5-point underdogs.
Our trusted projections expect the Jets as the 4th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 61.4% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
This year, the weak Bills pass defense has conceded a staggering 76.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing WRs: the worst rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Jets are predicted by the projection model to call only 62.4 total plays in this contest: the 3rd-fewest among all teams this week.
The 10th-fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the Jets this year (just 56.0 per game on average).
Allen Lazard has notched far fewer air yards this year (54.0 per game) than he did last year (84.0 per game).
Allen Lazard's 37.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 54.3.
In regards to pocket protection (and the effect it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Jets profiles as the 2nd-worst in the league this year.

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