Allen Lazard Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Allen Lazard

NFL · Player Props

Allen Lazard

WR · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Green Bay Packers · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 6:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Allen Lazard Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 43.5 (-145/+106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 43.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 43.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Packers are a massive 7.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.
Allen Lazard has been used less as a potential target this season (95.9% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (78.2%).
Allen Lazard has compiled far more air yards this year (89.0 per game) than he did last year (41.0 per game).
The Green Bay Packers offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all pass game stats across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Allen Lazard's receiving reliability have tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 70.5% to 63.1%.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has shown strong efficiency against WRs this year, conceding 7.77 yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-least in football.
The Green Bay Packers O-line has allowed their quarterback a measly 2.44 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Miami Dolphins defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season.

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