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Allen Lazard

Allen Lazard Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 9

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers

Allen Lazard Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+182/-265).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -257 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -265.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Allen Lazard has totaled far more air yards this season (86.0 per game) than he did last season (44.0 per game).

Allen Lazard's 55.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 28.8.

Allen Lazard grades out in the 95th percentile among wideouts as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging an impressive 0.67 per game.

The Detroit Lions pass defense has surrendered the highest Completion% in football (72.8%) versus wideouts this year (72.8%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Packers are a heavy 10.5-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the 3rd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Allen Lazard to be a much smaller part of his team's passing attack near the end zone this week (21.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (28.0% in games he has played).

The Green Bay Packers offensive line has given their QB a measly 2.44 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.

The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

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