Alexander Mattison Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Alexander Mattison

NFL · Player Props

Alexander Mattison

RB · Minnesota Vikings

Receptions

Minnesota Vikings vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Alexander Mattison Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-150/+118).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -194 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Vikings are a 3.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Vikings to pass on 67.9% of their downs: the highest rate among all teams this week.
The projections expect this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.2 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Alexander Mattison has run more routes this year (55.0% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last year (22.0%).

Favors Under

The Vikings have called the 7th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 54.5 plays per game.
Alexander Mattison's 76.1% Adjusted Completion Rate this year shows a a substantial reduction in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 83.9% rate.
When it comes to linebackers rushing the passer, Kansas City's collection of LBs has been very good this year, projecting as the 7th-best in the league.

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