Alexander Mattison Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Alexander Mattison

NFL · Player Props

Alexander Mattison

RB · Minnesota Vikings

Carries

Minnesota Vikings vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 23, 2023 11:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Alexander Mattison Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week, Alexander Mattison is predicted by the model to finish in the 76th percentile among running backs with 12.6 carries.
After making up 17.8% of his offense's run game usage last season, Alexander Mattison has been called on more in the rushing attack this season, currently sitting at 73.9%.

Favors Under

This game's spread indicates a passing game script for the Vikings, who are -6.5-point underdogs.
Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Minnesota Vikings to run on 31.0% of their chances: the lowest frequency on the slate this week.
The predictive model expects the Vikings to call the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The Vikings have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 55.3 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

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