Alexander Mattison Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Alexander Mattison

NFL · Player Props

Alexander Mattison

RB · Minnesota Vikings

Carries

Minnesota Vikings vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Alexander Mattison Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-122/-106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -107 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.2 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
The Chiefs safeties project as the 30th-worst safety corps in the league this year in regard to defending the run.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 3.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Minnesota Vikings to run on 32.1% of their downs: the lowest clip on the slate this week.
The Vikings have called the 7th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 54.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
While Alexander Mattison has earned 76.7% of his team's rush attempts in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a much smaller piece of Minnesota's ground game this week at 57.8%.

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