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Alec Pierce Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+126/-165).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -165.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Our trusted projections expect this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.2 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.The Bears defense has been a glaring pass funnel since the start of last season, enticing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 4th-most passes in the league (37.1 per game) since the start of last season.With an exceptional 93.6% Route Participation% (92nd percentile) since the start of last season, Alec Pierce has been among the wideouts with the highest volume in the league.The Indianapolis offensive line profiles as the best in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all passing game statistics across the board.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Indianapolis Colts to pass on 54.0% of their plays: the 5th-lowest clip among all teams this week.Alec Pierce profiles as one of the most unreliable receivers in football, completing just 53.0% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, checking in at the 4th percentile among WRsThe Bears pass defense has given up the 10th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (62.8%) to wideouts since the start of last season (62.8%).As it relates to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Chicago's CB corps has been very good since the start of last season, profiling as the 6th-best in the league.
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