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Alec Pierce

Alec Pierce Receptions
Player Prop Week 2

Green Bay Packers vs Indianapolis Colts

Alec Pierce Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +120 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -4-point disadvantage, the Colts are underdogs in this week's game, suggesting more of a focus on passing than their usual approach.

With a sizeable 93.7% Route Participation Rate (93rd percentile) since the start of last season, Alec Pierce has been among the WRs with the most usage in the NFL.

As it relates to protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Indianapolis Colts profiles as the 2nd-best in football since the start of last season.

The Green Bay Packers pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (69.7%) vs. WRs last year (69.7%).

The Packers linebackers project as the 3rd-worst LB corps in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to pass on 51.3% of their chances: the 4th-lowest clip among all teams this week.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to have only 126.5 total plays called: the 4th-lowest number on the slate this week.

Indianapolis's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially increased (and running stats reduced) due to playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL. We should be able to expect some correction with windier conditions in this game.

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been wary to pass too much against the Green Bay Packers, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 31.8 per game) last year.

Alec Pierce has been one of the most unreliable receivers in the NFL, hauling in just 53.0% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, checking in at the 2nd percentile among wideouts

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